Now that a decisive victory is impossible, the options available to all three of them – Trump, Netanyahu, and the Supreme Leader – are difficult and costly.
Resuming the fighting does not guarantee the American and Israeli allies better results than those achieved in forty days of intense bombing. It is now certain that the Supreme Leader's regime will not fall through military action, and that the losses it will suffer in a new round of war will be no less than what Washington's allies in the Arabian Gulf, and in Israel as well, could endure. A return to fighting is the worst news for the Iranian people; more destruction and casualties will make recovery even more difficult in the future.
Ending the war without an agreement is more costly than resuming the fighting. Trump and Netanyahu face crucial elections. The Democrats will show no mercy to Trump and his party in the midterm congressional elections. Their campaigns will strike at the heart of the victory narrative that the Republicans promote daily. The war has exceeded its stated costs, according to the Democrats, and the fate of Iran's nuclear program remains uncertain. The Supreme Leader's regime has returned, embodied by his son, even more extreme and aggressive. Gulf allies have been disappointed by their American ally and have paid a heavy price for a war in which they did not participate. Ending the war without an agreement means the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to international shipping, consolidating Iran's control over the strait and subjecting the world to the new reality.
Netanyahu will not dare declare victory in the elections. Iran has held firm, and its missiles are still capable of striking Tel Aviv. The Revolutionary Guard will not forgive Netanyahu and Israel for the assassination of the Supreme Leader; it will pursue them relentlessly. Hezbollah has regained its presence on the northern front and is now more capable of harming Israel. Lebanon has lost 5% of its territory, and destruction has befallen the south and the southern suburbs of Beirut, but Hezbollah is indifferent to Lebanon's fate. Israel's superior capabilities have thus far failed to stop the Iranian drones that strike its military units daily. Hezbollah will only be removed from the equation through a civil war, according to a segment of the Lebanese population today.
An endless conflict means a crippling economic blockade of Iran, exacerbated by the continued siege of Tehran's ports on the Gulf. This has led to a devastating crisis in the oil fields and a near-total inability to meet the most basic needs of the Iranian people. The Revolutionary Guard cannot maintain its grip on the levers of power in a shattered economy and with such a severe shortage of funds. The destruction of infrastructure, both military and civilian, will require tens of billions of dollars for repair and reconstruction.
The war united Iranians against their aggressors, but a ceasefire without an agreement offers no hope for the future and will likely spark widespread street protests. Like Americans, Iranians will hold their leadership accountable for the war's outcome. Resilience alone cannot justify the destruction, the blockade, and the human cost. Victory is meaningless if economic sanctions are not lifted and the country does not chart a new course for the future, one distinct from the path forged by decades of conflict with the world and its neighbors.
This war, unlike all wars in history, has a costly end for all parties involved, and resuming it would be a massacre for them. Leaving it as an open-ended conflict with no end in sight is a net loss, not only for the combatants, but for the whole world, which stood helpless before it and paid the price from its own pocket.