What the Middle East region is experiencing is a war in limbo; it is neither a military war, nor a prelude to reconciliation or settlement, nor stability.
The cost of a suspended war is higher than that of a military war, because a military war ends at some point, despite its human, economic and political damages, no matter how many parties are involved in it. A suspended war, however, is a war of attrition of everything: resources, wealth and human life, in addition to effects related to threats and uncertainty, which also affect economic stability and may leave an impact due to the blockade.
Who will survive in the game of maritime passages, the game of straits and what they mean in terms of energy, navigation and trade, and the need to resort to alternatives, amid threats to close Bab al-Mandab by groups loyal to Iran, and initial threats by groups in Somalia as well to close the Red Sea, and this leaves an impact on the world, including the Suez Canal, which is also affected, and the damage rebounds on Egypt and its stability.
The war that is currently on the table in American calculations is a response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The means of war are very costly for Iran and the countries of the region. So, who will withstand the game of the straits longer: the Iranian economy, or Washington and its allies, who will not accept the status quo for long? In comparison with the embargo on Iraq, the situation appears entirely different. The embargo on Iraq was sanctioned by international resolutions and involved the participation of the world's nations. Iraq did not control land or sea routes and suffered alone from the embargo to the point of exhausting the state and the regime. The Iranian situation is completely different, as Iran's geographical location has given it the ability to control maritime routes. Furthermore, the embargo was imposed by the United States, not internationally. In addition, the damage inflicted on Iran by its closure of Hormuz, or by Washington's creation of the Strait of Hormuz, affects dozens of other countries.
This means that there is a broad camp today, of countries around the world, that wants to end the ongoing war, either with a decisive military war or with a political settlement. The region cannot bear all this time, and the world cannot bear it. This means that Tehran is investing in the world’s tense nerves to pressure Washington to end the confrontation, in an Iranian climate that wants everyone to pay the same price with Iran, otherwise it must intervene to resolve the confrontation.
The crux of the whole situation is related to Washington's inability to
Returning to war is so easy, just as the suspended war is needed and harms all of Washington’s adversaries from Europe to China. It is tactically necessary, but at a certain point it will end in favor of a political settlement or a decisive military war, depending on changes in the regional and international landscape.
